US natural gas futures fell below $3 for the first time since May 2021, trading as low as $2.992/MMBtu Wednesday before the front-month February contract (NG1:COM) settled at a new 52-week low, -5.8% to $3.067/MMBtu.

Since fears that suppliers couldn’t meet wintertime demand pushed US natgas prices to a 14-year high of ~$10/MMBtu in August, US and Europe have refilled their buffer inventories ahead of winter, and relatively warm temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere so far have held down demand for heating.

A longer than expected shutdown at the Freeport LNG terminal due to a fire in June has constrained gas exports and thus raised US supplies, contributing to lower prices; the facility moved closer to restarting operations as the US Coast Guard determined a hazard study addresses its requirements.

ETFs: (NYSEARC:UNG), (UGAZF), (BOIL), (KOLD), (UNL), (FCG)

Gas-focused equities have fallen sharply during the past month: EQT (EQT) -8.6%Range Resources (RRC) -5.1%Antero Resources (AR) -14.2%Southwestern Energy (SWN) -9.7%Chesapeake Energy (CHK) -7.6%.

While natural gas prices may bottom soon, the US Natural Gas ETF (UNG) is “likely a poor bet today due to the immense ‘contango decay’ embedded in the futures curve,” Harrison Schwartz writes in an analysis posted recently on Seeking Alpha.